For several days air transport has been interrupted in Europe. A vulcano in Iceland has erupted. As soon as the wave of compensation claims will be rolling, and it will, airlines and travel agencies will happily confirm that it was a natural disaster, thus an Act of God.
The disaster shows the capacity of stakeholders to plan ahead. Contingency planning has been practiced for decades in almost any sector of activity. For instance, delays have been common in air transport so that airport operators and airlines have become very experienced. One result is their ability to reject ompensation claims.
Man is however unable to predict the future and will always remain so. He can only make educated guesses. In this he inspires himself from from past events which he has overcome successfully. This adds to man’s experience which shapes his present. Later it becomes his past and thus history as well.
Our oral and written past shows that there remains the unexpected. It is not really unexpected. It is only so owing to our incapacity to identify what will come with certainty. It is surprising since most of us and this includes stakeholders are convinced that everything is under control. From time to time this belief is shattered. Something unanticipated happens. In this case the appropriate reaction is to attempt to avoid any risk. Once the initial shock is over such decisions are usually criticised as excessive.
The reactions to the air traffic shutdown mirror this fact. At first, everybody agreed that this was the thing to do despite the massive inconveniences. Later, aviation experts claim that the authorities overreacted.
Three lessons can be drawn from the air transport shutdown:
First, rely on your past experience which has made you cautious. In this respect the grounding of air traffic is fully justified. Imagine the outcries if this had not been the case and an incident would have occurred.
Second, remain aware of the fact that you cannot predict the future. There will always be a surprise lurking following the next bend in your road of life. So be aware of this fundamental dilemma.
Third, understand that there is a way to cope with this. Plan for the worst and work for the best. Based on this, learn that nothing is granted in your life. You can only minimize the probability of a surprise but never eliminate it.
So, try to think the unthinkable: You cannot always control your destiny.
Danstanmart
Hello, j’avais consulté cette page il y a 2 semaines, mais avec mon anglais je n’avais pas tout compris. J’ai fait une traduction avec Google, et j’ai saisi le fond de ta pensée. Je ne pensais pas que tu était autant impliqué “philosophiquement” dans la critique. Ton article est tourné plutôt vers un style prévenant, un style attentif à l’évolution du monde au point de vue de l’excès de confiance des marchés commerciaux de l’aviation. Proche de la politique du parti “Les Verts” écolo.
Tu sais qu’un nouveau parti “verts libéraux” à été créé récemment. Je pense que tu es une personne qui devrait en faire partie. Tu as toutes les qualités.
Risch.
Cher André,
Merci pour tes observations fines. L’aviation est un moyen technique et comme tout moyen technique elle n’est ni bonne ni mauvaise. C’est l’Homme qui la transforme en un bénéfice ou un fléau pour le monde. En tout cas, l’âge de l’aéronautique sera lié étroitement à celui du pétrole.
Le parti Vert-Libéral est en effet un parti qui m’est assez proche. Une adhésion pourrait se faire. Or, ils sont plutôt contre l’aviation…
Bon envol et ciao,
Danstanmart