Can you control your destiny?

For several days air transport has been interrupted in Europe. A vulcano in Iceland has erupted. As soon as the wave of compensation claims will be rolling, and it will, airlines and travel agencies will happily confirm that it was a natural disaster, thus an Act of God.

The disaster shows the capacity of stakeholders to plan ahead. Contingency planning has been practiced for decades in almost any sector of activity. For instance, delays have been common in air transport so that airport operators and airlines have become very experienced. One result is their ability to reject ompensation claims.

Man is however unable to predict the future and will always remain so. He can only make educated guesses. In this he inspires himself from from past events which he has overcome successfully. This adds to man’s experience which shapes  his present. Later it becomes his past and thus history as well.

Our oral and written past shows that there remains the unexpected. It is not really unexpected. It is only so owing to our incapacity to identify what will come with certainty. It is surprising since most of us and this includes stakeholders are convinced that everything is under control. From time to time this belief is shattered. Something unanticipated happens. In this case the appropriate reaction is to attempt to avoid any risk. Once the initial shock is over such decisions are usually criticised as excessive.

The reactions to the air traffic shutdown mirror this fact. At first, everybody agreed that this was the thing to do despite the massive inconveniences. Later, aviation experts claim that the authorities overreacted.

Three lessons can be drawn from the air transport shutdown:

First, rely on your past experience which has made you cautious. In this respect the grounding of air traffic is fully justified. Imagine the outcries if this had not been the case and an incident would have occurred.

Second, remain aware of the fact that you cannot predict the future. There will always be a surprise lurking following the next bend in your road of life. So be aware of this fundamental dilemma.

Third, understand that there is a way to cope with this. Plan for the worst and work for the best. Based on this, learn that nothing is granted in your life. You can only minimize the probability of a surprise but never eliminate it.

So, try to think the unthinkable: You cannot always control your destiny.

Danstanmart

Beware of the Power

Why has Poland lost a large part of its elite? Because its members overestimated themselves. This is the most probable cause of the TU-154 crash, even if there is room for conspiracy theories.

It must be envisaged that one, maybe several of the members of government, maybe even President Lech Kaczynski himself, forced the pilot to land despite the adverse conditions.

This raises an old question: Who is in charge of an aircraft? Nobody but the Flight Captain. Whoever the passengers are, he should never yield to pressure. His decisions are always in the flight guests’ interest. Pilots have families as well. It can be taken for granted that Captain Arkadiusz Protasiuk wanted to see his again. So he intended to do his best but was prevented from doing so.

Yet another lesson should be drawn. Decision makers for a country, a company or an organization should never all travel together. There always remains a residual risk.

Both the fact that the pilots should be allowed to do their job in the interest of the people who rely on them and the idea that there should be a minimum of precaution when it comes to group travel of stakeholders have been known for a long time.

One question remains open: When will they ever learn?

Danstanmart

Solarimpulse vole

Aujourd’hui, 7 avril 2010, le Solar Impulse de Bertrand Piccard a pris l’air pour la première fois à Payerne.

Dès le départ, l’idée de contourner le monde par la seule énergie solaire a passionné et inspiré les spécialistes et le public. De temps à autre, des critiques ont également été entendues.

Bon envol, Bertrand!

Bon envol, André!

Et vous, que pensez-vous de ce projet?

Danstanmart

Solarimpulse fliegt

Heute, am 7. April 2010  fand der Jungernflug des Solar Impulse von Bertrand Piccard in Payerne statt.

Von Anfang an hat die Idee, die Erde ausschliesslich mit Sonnenenergie zu umfliegen Fachleute und das Publikum gleichermassen fasziniert. Vereinzelnt gibt es auch Kritik.

Und Sie, was halten Sie von dieser Idee?

Danstanmart

Sunward Ho!

Today, the Swiss pioneer Bertrand Piccard had his great day. The Solarimpulse took to the skies for the first time today, 7th April 2010 in Payerne.

In case you shouldn’t know it, he is the first to attempt a round-the-world flight by solar power. During the day solar cells power the aircraft and charge batteries. When the sun is below the horizon, the aircraft draws its energy from the battieres.

From the very beginning the venture has fascinated professionals and the public. Some have rejected the idea as useless and a dream of fancy without any potential for aviation. Do you think Solar Impulse is a good idea or not?

Danstanmart